Mr Djokovic Finishing Strong

We've known for a long time what a danger Novak Djokovic is to his fellow players. After all, he has beaten all the top players, has several masters titles, and has won the Australian Open. While he's won more matches than anyone else this year the world seemed to focus more on Federer and Nadal (and even Murray) since January. Now that the year is winding down, the marathon man Djokovic seems stronger than ever while Federer is distracted and Nadal is struggling for form.

For most of the year some speculated that the controversial racquet change Djokovic made was affecting his game too much. For me, his forehand was clearly off and he was struggling for confidence. All of a sudden, none of that seems to be an issue. Over the past few weeks in Basel and Paris Novak has been striking his forehand as well as I have ever seen. Unlike Federer, Djokovic doesn't often spray this shot into the stands. And unlike Nadal, Djokovic can penetrate through the court quite easily. Both Roger and Rafa displayed their greatest weaknesses to Novak as they fell tamely over the recent weeks to the Serbian.

If the world number 1 and number 2 can't regroup and get these weaknesses under control again, the rock solid Djokovic will be standing there ready to knock them down. Novak in my mind is the big favorite going into the year end championships in London. Nadal showed yet again that no matter how badly he is getting his butt kicked he will not change his game drastically enough to throw he defeater off course. Roger just seems incredibly unfocused to me. Granted he has a good reason (the new kids) but if he seriously wants to be a contender for several more years he will have to find a better balance. Murray's tame game won't work well on an fast indoor surface against the elite players in the world. He is still far too defensive in his play.

Now there are other players who will be in London, but all things considered at the moment Novak Djokovic is the strongest force in tennis.

Del Potro's Doomsday

Tennis, like most sports, is a continually evolving game. Wilander ruined serve and volley with his consistency and mental brilliance. The power of Lendl and Sampras took it from there. Hewitt's neutralizing counterpunching grabbed the reigns after that. Then came Roger, the all around expert. It took a special breed of super strong, super fast competitors a la Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray to steal some of the limelight. But even they are having trouble wrangling the crown from the almighty Federer. Perhaps their evolution isn't quite drastic enough.

Enter Juan Martin Del Potro.

At a towering 6'6", he is the tallest man to ever win a grand slam. That is saying a lot considering his style of play. Think tall champions of the past. Goran had arguably the best serve in the game of tennis. Unfortunately his inability to support that weapon with anything else kept him from winning more than a single major. Safin was the closest thing we had to the next step. Fortunately for today's champions, Marat's mental instability has extinguished the bright flame of potential he once had. Del Potro could easily outshine them both.

Juan Martin is rare breed that combines agility, consistency, and tactics with his extreme size and power. In my eyes, his greatest strength is hitting giant winners from further back more consistently than anyone else so far. It allows him to go from defense (which he is surprisingly skilled at) to offense on a whim without even changing court positioning. He's having his cake and eating it too. While this is a huge asset, he's shown its not what he relies on all of the time. Against Rafael Nadal in the semis of the US Open, Del Potro stood firm on the baseline and took Nadal's high bouncing-spin on the rise like it was nothing. That takes serious timing. And oh yeah - he can crack his serve over 140mph. Something tells me he will improve this number as well. We may soon see the first man in history to hit over 160mph.

If Juan Martin Del Potro continues to improve he could very well put an end to the Roger-Rafa battle for number one by simply stepping over both of them like a bouncer breaking up a bar fight.

Quiet Class triumphs over Angry Arrogance

I always thought the Kim Clijsters vs Serena Williams match would be an entertaining one, but this one was unforgettable. Kim kept her head down and played an extremely mature match while Serena struggled against someone who could match her own level. Having smashed a racquet in the first set Williams had earned a warning. As per the official rules, any subsequent warning would result in a single point penalty. Unfortunately, Serena could not contain her anger after a 2nd serve foot fault was called on her to make the score 15-40 in the 12 game of the second set. Once she berated the line judge, the tournament supervisor had no choice but to give another warning which garnered a point penalty giving the match to Clijsters.

Now Williams has never really been one to give her opponents or fellow players much credit or praise. Earlier this year she was very vocal in her disagreement over Safina's ranking and she very seldom blames a loss on anything other than shoddy play.

This may sound harsh toward Serena, but you have to consider everything. From time to time everyone can lose their cool and to be honest Serena only let slip out her mouth what I'm sure tons of players have thought to themselves before. The tragedy came as a result of a compounding effect afterwards. Instead of owning up to her bad choice Serena made no attempt to reconcile or even acknowledge much wrongdoing in the press conference after the match. Perhaps in a day or two Williams will issue an apology. But until then, these two instances of bad behavior show very little class. It may be cliche, but someone think of the children! As a multiple slam winner and hall of fame player literally millions of children look up to Serena. Hopefully she will come to her senses in a few days so that the little ones who idolize her don't learn that just because you are the best does not mean you are allowed to 'shove f*cking balls' down anyone's 'f*cking throat.'

Winning by not losing

Let me start by saying that Andy Murray is a great tennis player. He's a brilliant tactician and a hard worker. Everything he has earned up to this point has been a result of his great drive to improve, and now he is climbing to the very top of the game. But all of that won't keep me from falling asleep every time I sit down to watch one of his matches.

Now I realize it is a bit ridiculous and selfish of me to criticize a tennis player for not being entertaining. The only reason I feel strong enough to blog about it is because I feel it isn't the greatest thing for the sport overall. This is a man who is challenging for number one by playing passive, slow paced, consistent rally tennis. His main strategy is to make his opponent lose in a flurry of unforced errors. We've seen this before - Lleyton Hewitt played a very similar type of game when he was #1 several years ago. The difference was personality. Hewitt was a feisty competitor who really had to pour himself all over the court in order to fend off the big hitters of his day. By contrast Murray has a sort of sleepy type of game combined with a fairly negative attitude. These factors don't garner him tons of fans outside of the UK.

With Federer and Nadal slowly playing back into form I hope to see them contending for the bigger titles again. All due respect to Murray, but I just want to be excited to watch tennis on the weekend again!

Unbreakable

These days the Wimbledon final seems to be inevitably entertaining. While the Roland Garros final was slightly exciting this year as we were holding our breaths to see if Roger could win the elusive slam, the action itself turned out to be quite disappointing. Sunday's Wimbledon final was sheer excitement from beginning to end.

Roddick came into the match with a losing record of 2-18 against Roger Federer. Under normal circumstances many people would have written him off. I definitely would have. But his recent performance against Hewitt and Murray suggested he was reaching another level. On top of that, Roddick's last few encounters with the Swiss were quite close.

I have always been perplexed over the curious fact that Federer out-aced Roddick in their matches. Sunday I realized why. Federer can get away with putting in a second serve. His ground game is superior so he has the option of going for aces on every first serve. Roddick on the other hand, can't afford to show Federer a second ball. He NEEDS a high first serve percentage. That he had - something near 80%. He wasn't always going for aces, but Roger still could not get his returns in play. Unlike in the past, Federer could not read the Roddick delivery. It took Roger 5 sets and over 4 hours to break Andy's serve - and his heart (sorry I just had to :))

Now to get a bit technical. Roddick did hit his groundstrokes well during the fortnight. But I still find his ground game the most technically immature of the top 10. The once fearsome forehand of 2003 has now become a jerky windshield wiper stroke. In order to produce a more penetrating ball, he has to produce far more racquet head speed than in the past. As a result, the consistency of his flat stroke has fallen dramatically as well as his accuracy. He also has to get properly set up and 'charge' the stroke which makes his defensive forehand particularly weak. Roger on the other hand has a forehand that is technically perfect as far as I am concerned. His swingpath is extremely versatile. As a result he can vary his spin-to-speed ratio extremely easily. He can also hit with variety from any position, as Nadal can do, and therefore defend extremely well. Similar principles apply on the backhand. Roddick will always have one of the best serves in the game. But he may never have as good a chance as he just had at Wimbledon.

The Wardrobe of a Champion?

Walking onto court with his new jacket and vest this year made me cringe. To compound the problem, a coincidental NetJets commercial starring the Swiss aired moments before. Lets put aside the fact that his outfit and purse look a bit ridiculous. Roger Federer, being a role model to millions of children, should watch after his image and take care not to disconnect himself with this snobbish look. Obviously he is wealthy beyond most people's wildest imagination. Just ask Mirka - it looks like she dunked her hands in a bowl of glue, then a bowl of jewels. All I ask is to tone it down a bit. Show some humility and class. We know he's a classy player and person, so why not portray this externally? Put down the matching purse and vest and throw on a Roger Federer Foundation t-shirt!

Wimbledon Preview

With Nadal unable to defend his cherished title the door was left wide open for Federer to claim number 15 with relative ease. For so long the grass courts have belonged to one man - Roger Federer. Then Nadal came along and eventually prevailed. But even then, it took the best match in tennis history for Rafa to overcome the reigning champ. So even though Federer is having one of his less successful years, he will not be so easily pushed aside on his favorite court.

I personally doubt Federer will have any trouble winning this year. He's now a veteran of grass and has more experience than anyone else in the draw on this surface. Consider that this is his best tournament and realize that he is to Wimbledon what Nadal is to Roland Garros. So who out there can top him besides his greatest rival? Here are a few challengers and my take on them -

Andy Murray -

All eyes are on him this year. Even if he wasn't playing for the home team, he does have a winning record against Roger and one of the best return games on tour. He's been to a slam final and won a few masters titles, so the only variables are his temper and the pressure of the press. He will be under the microscope as his the official favorite for many. I pick him to make the final, but also pick Federer to make mincemeat of him when he gets there.

Novak Djokovic -

He's been to the semis in 2007 and the finals of Queens in 2008. With few weaknesses and incredible defensive skills this guy is a contender wherever he goes. Remember he has a grand slam and Murray does no so experience should be no factor. Unfortunately his lackluster performance at Roland Garros is a worrisome variable. If he's feeling good I see him as the #3 favorite for the title in my mind.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -

One of the most aggressive players on tour is sure to love the grass courts of London. He's only played Wimbledon once (l. to Gasquet) but did not fail to impress. Shorter rallies mean he'll have to hit less backhands which I'm sure he wont mind, and his soft hands will create more than a few unreachable drop volleys. Big serve + big groundstrokes always equal success on this surface but he's also got a far better than average forecourt game. My dark horse pick.

Andy Roddick -

Sorry Roddick fans, but this guy is outdated. After years of trying to improve his game he's got little to show for it. His massive serve keeps him floating in the top 10, but his backhand is still one of the weakest in the top 50 and he's lost a lot of zest from his forehand since 03-04. He is now hitting far less winners (almost always less than his opponent) and is still hitting questionable approach shots. He'll probably cruise through a few rounds, but as soon as he faces a quality player I don't see him lasting long.

Juan Martin Del Potro -

While he is shaping up to be a legitimate challenger for major titles, I just don't see him doing well this year. He's obviously quite tall but unfortunately he doesn't play like Goran Ivanisevic. He likes to stay at the baseline so the low bounce won't favor his game. For a 6'6" man, his serve is still not where it should be.

Fernando Gonzalez -

My sleeper pick for Roland Garros will be riding a wave of confidence as he moves onto the grass. His slice will stay low and his fierce forehand translates to any surface. His relatively weak returns won't make things easy for him but he can counteract this with his ability to end a point from any spot on the court.

The Legend Continues

When someone accomplishes something or something happens that is beyond belief, something that has never happened before, something that may never happen again, it is looked back upon as legend. An event or series of events so remarkable that their reality is debatable. The legend of Roger Federer earned a new chapter today, in a way ensuring that this chapter will not be the last. Had Roger succumbed to any one of the many serious challengers this week he may have been forced into a downward spiral. But here he stands, a new man. No doubt the events of last week will give him much needed confidence as he continues his career. 

The early exit of Rafael Nadal opened the door wide for the world number two. Federer managed to take full advantage, and after a few bumps in the road he claimed what Nadal had kept from him for the last four years. With a knee injury threatening to keep Nadal from defending his Wimbledon title later this month the path could be cleared again for Federer to claim a 15th major title with relative ease and break Sampras's record. Sure there are going to be challengers other than Nadal at the all england club, but few have the vast grass experience that the 28 year old Federer has. 

The Swiss maestro now ties the record of 14 majors, has made the semis or better in the last 20 slams, and now has all 4 slams under his belt. We are watching history in the making, and I consider it a an honor to be a tennis fan during this period.

Soderling vs Nadal

So much has already been written about the shocking loss of Rafa Nadal to Robin Soderling so I won't dwell on the historical implications here. Instead I'll take a more technical approach. 

At the end of the day it boils down to this - Nadal played terribly and Soderling played great. I thought it would have been fun to see Nadal go for broke for 4 or 5 games in order to change the rythm of the match. He's as strong dude (probably stronger than Soderling) and can hit winners from anywhere. At least dictate as much as possible. Soderling isn't the best mover, and he can't pound groundstrokes as consistently if he has to dash from corner to corner. Pretend you're on grass Rafa!

Another thing Nadal could have done was employ the slice and hit more drop shots. If you've ever seen Roger Federer play Soderling or Berdych he does exactly this and it works perfectly. These big guys are tanks from the baseline but flounder a bit in the forecourt - especially with balls below the height of the net. Relatively speaking, Soderling is terrible volleyer and no one passes better than Nadal.

The problem was that Nadal would not or could not change strategy during the match. You can't really blame him either - his strategy has won him 4 French Open trophies. This was also the guy that made Lleyton Hewitt look like a club player just a few days ago. There are a lot of things Nadal could have done differently but we can't be too critical. He seems to be struggling with his backhand lately, and in all fairness strict defense is a often a viable play against a player like Soderling. Unfortunately Soderling was ready to hit a few extra balls and was playing out of his mind. It apparently was no fluke either - today he crushed Nikolay Davydenko 6-1, 6-3, 6-1.

Acasuso vs Federer

I mentioned in my first blog that Roland Garros holds a special place in my heart because of depth we see at the event. Its a slam full of surprises. Not heeding my own words, I saw the day's schedule and picked this morning as the one to sleep in for a change. Waking up to see Jose Acasuso one set all and up two breaks against Federer, I scrambled to pour some coffee and settled in for the potential upset.

The first set tie break was a thriller. Acasuso spent most of the time dictating with fast, deep, heavy strokes while Roger was very discrete about when to be offensive and when to scamper. This ended up being the key for the Swiss, as he made Acasuso play ball after ball until an unforced error finally gave Federer the set. 

In the third set, Acasuso continued his assault of consistently meaty groundstrokes and raced into the lead.  When he turned his ankle at 4-1 the situation looked dire, but the Argentine was able to regain focus and hold. Ironically it was after this that Federer was able to raise his level and fought back 4-5. The weight of the situation seemed to really hit Jose at this point. Some loose play on serve allowe Roger to level the situation at 5-5 and hold for 6-5, draining the belief from Acasuso. And just like that we saw the demons return. Sulking and bickering with his box, Acasuso self-destructed in the tie break giving the 3rd set to Roger Federer. 

Unfortunately it was all downhill from here. It turns out my instincts to sleep in were right. As talented as Jose Acasuso is, we must always remember that his top ranking of 20 came three years ago and that this is the man that had his heart broken twice after he was thrown into the decisive rubbers of two davis cup finals against greater opponents.  His fragile dam of confidence is broken easily. As enthralled as we all were, I have a feeling Federer knew exactly this even when down a double break down in the third.

We seem spoiled these days with the absolute quality of our top players. They are so consistently good that should they loose a single set, the world scrambles to watch the 'potential upset.' The press goes crazy, fans go crazy, and general craziness conquers the day. At what point does this type of thing play on Federer's mind in the middle of a simple 4 set match that a few years ago he knew he would never loose?  I suppose thats the price of perfection. 

The Rank of the Commentators

We all have our favorite commentators. Today I was listening to the difference between the one commentator per court on the multi-court feed and the plethora of teams that commentate for ESPN and the Tennis Channel. Being the tennis geek I am, I have heard a lot from all of these people. Quite a difference, and here is what I think. Just remember this is very much subjective. Spelling of the actual names may be questionable here...

Jason Goodall - my favorite. The ultimate professional. Keeps quiet during points and is very classy with humorous quips every now and then that seem out of left field making them all the better. He doesn't just commentate - he shares his articulate analysis with the audience much like a sports writer does.

Robby Koenig - really good, especially when teamed with Jason Goodall. Shares many of Jason's good qualities and has an great South African accent that keeps you entertained even after the 5000th time he says 'inch perfect!'

Darren Cahill - Very classy professional. On top of that, he has so much tennis knowledge in his head I'm amazed how well he is at filtering what comes out of his mouth, much unlike someone else who I won't mention (but his name rhymes with Chad Filbert). Cahill has coached many excellent players and is someone you can trust. 

Doug Adler - often works with the two guys above for the ATP world feed. A bit brash, he can get carried away and berate players for hours if he is left unattended (his solo work on today's match of Tsonga vs Benneteau). We may one day see him dash down to the court on the change of ends to yell at Andy Roddick.

John McEnroe - this guy is such an established character that he's really beyond judgement, especially from a tennis nerd like me. He may get off track and talk between points, but he brings a nice laid back presence to the booth and can make you laugh.

Patrick McEnroe - he's a solid commentator with lots of knowledge of the players and the game. Just keep him away from Drysdale. These two sound like a bitter married couple whenever they are in the booth together.

Jimmy Arias - He has a tendency to be a bit hard on the players but is great at speaking his mind. Being a great analyst and strategist adds weight to his words. 

Leif Shiras - This man is a great anchor. He can pull of the duties of someone like Ted Robinson but has the tennis knowledge and discretion that make him 100% respectable. Probably underpaid and definitely under-appreciated.

Brad Gilbert - Good in the sense that he is never short on things to say. Bad in the sense that he is, well, never short on things to say. Sometimes he's hilarious and other times he makes you want to watch on mute. Excellent in small doses.

Chris Fowler - no one is perfect, and I am willing to overlook all of this guy's faults because of how much he seems to try. This guy has been working for ESPN outside of tennis for a long time. He is able to focus on his job and genuinely seems to like tennis. Kudos to one of the hardest working guys in sports casting.

Justin Gimelstob - enrages me every time I hear him. He's an established chauvinist and has a hard time hiding it even on tv. He probably works for cheap, which is why the tennis channel chose not to permanently can him after those Kournikova remarks last year.

Barry McKay - I have to respect him because of his age, accomplishments, and overall nice guy persona. But my god man - the linesmen aren't shouting at the top of their lungs for no reason. Barry's constant remarks like 'thats a fault,' 'just long,' and 'wide' must stop. How is it that none of his bosses have called him on this?

Ted Robinson - an absolute tool. Not sure if he actually has a personality or any opinions of his own. He is pretty good at being a liaison for non tennis fans. Unfortunately he has no clue what he's talking about 50% of the time.

First Blog

Welcome to my first blog! I will be doing these as often as possible in order to share my own views of mens pro tennis for those interested. 

The second slam of the year is just around the corner. Personally I can't wait - Roland Garros is my favorite of the four majors. The terre battu is the ultimate equalizer and brings out the full depth of the field.

The last notable thing to happen on the ATP tour was the defeat of clay king Rafael Nadal at the hands of Roger Federer. As shocking as that may sound, this particular event was riddled with more asterisks than a cell phone contract. Here are a few - 

- Nadal's effort level - the match against Djokovic that took place less than 24 hours before the final was an epic four hour slugfest. Leave it to Nadal and Djokovic to play the longest 3-set match in masters history. It was a big ask for Nadal to come back the next day and fight as hard as one must against the holder of 13 slam titles. Rafa's flat performance coupled with none of the recent self-destructive play from Roger resulted in a fairly quick result. 

- The conditions - Madrid's notoriously high altitude rewards the aggressor and is in stark contrast to the conditions present for the rest of the clay court season. Federer used this to his advantage and Nadal failed to adjust properly. The greatest indicator to me was the number of backhands Nadal missed into the net on Sunday.

- Supermodel ballgirls - Federer recently tied the knot with longtime girlfriend Mirka but young Nadal wears no ring. He was clearly distracted ;)

So take what you will from the last notable match before Roland Garros. The field is deep and there are more serious contenders than last year. Here is a run down of some of those favored to make a dent - 

1). Rafael Nadal..... The guy who's never lost at the event is the clear favorite. He's never even been pushed to five sets at Roland Garros, and only twice ever on clay (he won both). He destroyed the field last year without losing a set. My pick to win by a long shot.

2). Novak Djokovic.... Clearly the second best clay court player this year so far. He's got the consistency, the fitness, the strength, and the weapons to crush inferior players. Remember he made the semis in 2007 and 2008. My second favorite

3). Roger Federer.... Were it not for the recent win in Madrid I would have written off this great champion. He's shown little noticeable effort to change in the face of his recent slump. This indicates to me that he believes it is only a matter of time before he's back in form and matches are the only way to get there. Hopefully this is true, as the number of opportunities for him to complete the career slam are dwindling as he ages. 

4). Andy Murray.... He's not what you picture when you think clay court player, but this talented tactician has shown that a sound strategy transcends the surface he plays on. His superior tennis brain will allow him to cruise against lower ranked players provided he keeps his cool

5). Fernando Verdasco.... A physical machine that powers through lesser competitors, it seems safe to pencil him into the second week. Unfortunately his recent meetings with the cream of the crop have led me to believe he still cant handle the biggest of stages, with the one obvious exception being the classic run in Melbourne. 

6). Juan Martin Del Potro.... Much like Verdasco, he has shown great consistency but has faltered against the greatest of foes. If he can replicate the heart he showed in Miami, he could easily disrupt the Murray Djokovic Nadal Federer semi final slots. 

7). Fernando Gonzalez.... Probably not at the top of the list for most people, but this Chilean veteran knows how to win 5 setters and will have no trouble grinding for hours.  While he is no apparent worry for Nadal, he could be a threat to everyone else. 

If we've learned anything about Roland Garros over the years its one thing - nothing is for certain. Though Federer and Nadal have managed to consistently make the final as of late, the tournament is often known for featuring some obscure players late in the tournament.