Sunday, June 21, 2009

Wimbledon Preview

With Nadal unable to defend his cherished title the door was left wide open for Federer to claim number 15 with relative ease. For so long the grass courts have belonged to one man - Roger Federer. Then Nadal came along and eventually prevailed. But even then, it took the best match in tennis history for Rafa to overcome the reigning champ. So even though Federer is having one of his less successful years, he will not be so easily pushed aside on his favorite court.

I personally doubt Federer will have any trouble winning this year. He's now a veteran of grass and has more experience than anyone else in the draw on this surface. Consider that this is his best tournament and realize that he is to Wimbledon what Nadal is to Roland Garros. So who out there can top him besides his greatest rival? Here are a few challengers and my take on them -

Andy Murray -
All eyes are on him this year. Even if he wasn't playing for the home team, he does have a winning record against Roger and one of the best return games on tour. He's been to a slam final and won a few masters titles, so the only variables are his temper and the pressure of the press. He will be under the microscope as his the official favorite for many. I pick him to make the final, but also pick Federer to make mincemeat of him when he gets there.

Novak Djokovic -
He's been to the semis in 2007 and the finals of Queens in 2008. With few weaknesses and incredible defensive skills this guy is a contender wherever he goes. Remember he has a grand slam and Murray does no so experience should be no factor. Unfortunately his lackluster performance at Roland Garros is a worrisome variable. If he's feeling good I see him as the #3 favorite for the title in my mind.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -
One of the most aggressive players on tour is sure to love the grass courts of London. He's only played Wimbledon once (l. to Gasquet) but did not fail to impress. Shorter rallies mean he'll have to hit less backhands which I'm sure he wont mind, and his soft hands will create more than a few unreachable drop volleys. Big serve + big groundstrokes always equal success on this surface but he's also got a far better than average forecourt game. My dark horse pick.

Andy Roddick -
Sorry Roddick fans, but this guy is outdated. After years of trying to improve his game he's got little to show for it. His massive serve keeps him floating in the top 10, but his backhand is still one of the weakest in the top 50 and he's lost a lot of zest from his forehand since 03-04. He is now hitting far less winners (almost always less than his opponent) and is still hitting questionable approach shots. He'll probably cruise through a few rounds, but as soon as he faces a quality player I don't see him lasting long.

Juan Martin Del Potro -
While he is shaping up to be a legitimate challenger for major titles, I just don't see him doing well this year. He's obviously quite tall but unfortunately he doesn't play like Goran Ivanisevic. He likes to stay at the baseline so the low bounce won't favor his game. For a 6'6" man, his serve is still not where it should be.

Fernando Gonzalez -
My sleeper pick for Roland Garros will be riding a wave of confidence as he moves onto the grass. His slice will stay low and his fierce forehand translates to any surface. His relatively weak returns won't make things easy for him but he can counteract this with his ability to end a point from any spot on the court.


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